(Warning) Japan's China sanctions on photolithography... that went viral

Key evidence (summary)

1. Asia Times (original source) reported on the spread of Chinese online/market rumors, and the article repeatedly stated it was "rumor/speculation" in the main text. — However, some Korean and Chinese media that quoted/re-transmitted this did not properly convey the "speculative" expressions, leading to reporting that seemed like confirmed news.

2. There is no announcement of "cessation of photolithography exports to China" from the Japanese government (METI) or major Japanese suppliers (official websites, press releases). Such announcements or statements were not found through corporate IR/news page searches. In other words, official confirmation documents are absent.

3. Major international news agencies (Reuters, Bloomberg, etc.) also did not report confirmed news of "Japan halting all exports" in their breaking news or confirmation reports. The lack of reporting from reliable institutions is a key point.

Therefore — a rational judgment at this point

* Do not conclude it as fact. (Unconfirmed → should be labeled as 'rumor')

* Some Korean articles likely omitted or shortened the "speculative/rumor" warnings from the original source (Asia Times), making it easy for readers to accept it as "confirmed." (Matches what the user's fmkorea post pointed out)

If this rumor were true (hypothetical)

* There could be short-term supply disruptions for some Chinese foundries/memory manufacturers (e.g., SMIC, CXMT), impacting their production plans and expansion (especially for processes relying on advanced EUV/ArF resists). Consequently, this could ripple through the semiconductor supply chain, prices, and investment sentiment.

* However, realistically, China's proportion of sales for major Japanese companies is significant (their China sales proportion is quite high), and "complete blockade" would be difficult to implement unless the Japanese government/companies officially announce separate countermeasures (e.g., export control targeting specific companies → export licensing methods, etc.).

1. "Japan has stopped exporting photolithography to China" — Status of factuality

* Some foreign media and news outlets, like Asia Times, recently reported that "Japan appears to have effectively halted all photolithography shipments to China since mid-November."

* According to these reports, Japanese material companies like Shin-Etsu Chemical and JSR Corporation are major global suppliers of advanced photolithography, and reliance on Japan is very high, especially for advanced photoresists like EUV-grade ones.

* Furthermore, some media have raised concerns that this could impact the expansion or production plans of Chinese foundry and memory manufacturers (e.g., SMIC, CXMT).

→ In other words: Reports/suspicions exist that "Japan → China" photolithography exports have decreased or partially halted, and the market is reacting sensitively.

⚠️ 2. Reasons for the interpretation of "rumor or exaggeration + uncertainty"

* It's pointed out that the sources of these export halt reports are mostly Chinese, Hong Kong media, and "securities market rumors / market whispers." Some reports explicitly state, "There are no official announcements from the Japanese government or companies."

* Moreover, there is still no publicly available information confirming "export halt" or "supply halt" from major Japanese photolithography suppliers — meaning reports of "effective halt" are analyzed as having a strong character of "circumstance + estimation."

* In similar past sanctions (e.g., 2019), Japan did indeed include photolithography exports as a control target, but subsequent research suggested "no clear statistical evidence of a significant overall decrease in photolithography export volume" and analyzed that alternative suppliers were secured and adjustments were made.

* Additionally, if the supply halt isn't institutionally confirmed, there's an interpretation that some "delays + approval delays + stricter supply conditions" could be misperceived as "halts."

→ In other words: The current claims of "complete halt" and "total blockage" spreading in the media and market are difficult to consider as officially confirmed facts, and the view that it's in the realm of possibility based on rumors + circumstances + some analysis remains valid.

I've also fact-checked numerous foreign articles myself.

**Situation Summary**

1. News about Japan's sanctions on China regarding photolithography has been appearing in Korean media.

2. After looking into it, it turned out to be mere rumors and speculation from Hong Kong's Asia Times, and Korean media exaggerated it to seem like exports were halted.

3. No official announcement from Japan. China's sales from Japanese photolithography companies are substantial. If China achieves complete independence, Japan might actually be the one in trouble.