China's Ultra-Low Birth Rate

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China's total fertility rate (TFR) is currently near the world's lowest level at 1.01 births per woman as of 2024, falling far short of the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain the population. Despite policy shifts like abolishing the one-child policy in 2016 and introducing the three-child policy in 2021, the decline in birth rate could not be stopped. Even the 'Year of the Dragon' effect, which traditionally boosts births, is weakening, barely lifting the TFR by 0.1 in 2024.

While China's population decrease is part of the general low-birth-rate trend seen across developed nations, its speed and magnitude are particularly steep. South Korea holds the record for the world's lowest TFR at 0.73, and Japan, Europe, and the US are also significantly below replacement levels. India, while relatively high at 1.96, is also on a downward trend.

These demographic changes are having a severe impact on China. The shrinking labor force and rising pension burden weaken economic vitality and shake long-term growth prospects. Although the government provides subsidies and tax benefits to encourage childbirth, families' willingness to have children is not recovering due to the high cost of living, fierce educational competition, and unstable economic conditions. Despite policy relaxations, social demand for multi-child households has not returned.

│Year││Total Fertility Rate│ │2000││1.63│ │2001││1.56│ │2002││1.57│ │2003││1.57│ │2004││1.60│ │2005││1.62│ │2006││1.64│ │2007││1.67│ │2008││1.70│ │2009││1.71│ │2010││1.69│ │2011││1.67│ │2012││1.80│ │2013││1.71│ │2014││1.77│ │2015││1.67│ │2016││1.77│ │2017││1.80│ │2018││1.54│ │2019││1.50│ │2020││1.24│ │2021││1.12│ │2022││1.03│ │2023││1.00│ │2024││1.01│