China's total fertility rate (TFR) is currently near the world's lowest level at 1.01 births per woman as of 2024, falling far short of the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain the population. Despite policy shifts like abolishing the one-child policy in 2016 and introducing the three-child policy in 2021, the decline in birth rate could not be stopped. Even the 'Year of the Dragon' effect, which traditionally boosts births, is weakening, barely lifting the TFR by 0.1 in 2024.
While China's population decrease is part of the general low-birth-rate trend seen across developed nations, its speed and magnitude are particularly steep. South Korea holds the record for the world's lowest TFR at 0.73, and Japan, Europe, and the US are also significantly below replacement levels. India, while relatively high at 1.96, is also on a downward trend.
These demographic changes are having a severe impact on China. The shrinking labor force and rising pension burden weaken economic vitality and shake long-term growth prospects. Although the government provides subsidies and tax benefits to encourage childbirth, families' willingness to have children is not recovering due to the high cost of living, fierce educational competition, and unstable economic conditions. Despite policy relaxations, social demand for multi-child households has not returned.
โYearโโTotal Fertility Rateโ โ2000โโ1.63โ โ2001โโ1.56โ โ2002โโ1.57โ โ2003โโ1.57โ โ2004โโ1.60โ โ2005โโ1.62โ โ2006โโ1.64โ โ2007โโ1.67โ โ2008โโ1.70โ โ2009โโ1.71โ โ2010โโ1.69โ โ2011โโ1.67โ โ2012โโ1.80โ โ2013โโ1.71โ โ2014โโ1.77โ โ2015โโ1.67โ โ2016โโ1.77โ โ2017โโ1.80โ โ2018โโ1.54โ โ2019โโ1.50โ โ2020โโ1.24โ โ2021โโ1.12โ โ2022โโ1.03โ โ2023โโ1.00โ โ2024โโ1.01โ
"Everyone immediately started using this post to perform hyper-specific CCP censorship trolling and then quickly pivot to self-deprecatingly praising China's 1.0 TFR as 'practically Godโs number' compared to Korea."
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