The Inevitable Implosion - Atlanta Braves 2025 Season Review (Pitchers and Manager Edition)

This post reviews a season that severely underperformed expectations, so the tone is mostly negative. If you get triggered easily, hit that back button. 2025 Mid-Season Review: https://www.fmkorea.com/8663737827

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Atlanta Braves 2025 Season Review - Pitchers Team Performance Season Record: 76 wins, 86 losses NL East: 4th place Postseason: Failed to qualify During the 2025 season, the Atlanta Braves utilized a whopping 73 players (pitchers and hitters combined), setting a disgraceful club record for the most players used in a single season. Some use this as proof to emphasize the narrative that 'the season was completely ruined simply by injuries,' but this is closer to self-justification that clouds the true nature of the problem.

A Predictable Man-made Disaster

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The collapse of the 2025 pitching staff was a predictable man-made disaster (人災) even before the season started. The starting rotation had structural risks: the departure of ace Max Fried, the loss of veteran Charlie Morton (who consistently ate innings without injury), and the fact that expected future ace Spencer Strider was coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. The bullpen was also gutted, with core high-leverage relievers Joe Jimenez and AJ Minter both gone simultaneously. Nevertheless, GM Alex Anthopoulos spent the entire offseason neglecting to acquire immediate impact players, instead signing countless minor league contracts with virtually no actual expenditure—adopting a 'pray-and-spray' approach, hoping one would work out. As a result, after the season began, the Braves were forced to resort to desperate 'dumpster diving' acquisitions, most of whom were either demoted to the minors or released after just a few appearances. If the front office had recognized the clear risks before the season and sufficiently prepared the roster, we would not have experienced such a catastrophic result.

The Ripple Effect of the Rotation Collapse

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The Atlanta Braves' 2025 season was a continuous stream of abnormal pitching management. This was starkly demonstrated by the unprecedented situation where all five members of the Opening Day starting rotation ended up on the 60-day injured list due to long-term injuries during the season. In the first half, despite the bad conditions of a slumping offense and a collapsing bullpen, the starting rotation, led by Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, barely kept the team afloat. However, once they too were successively knocked out by long-term injuries, the Opening Day rotation was effectively annihilated by the All-Star break. Losing all momentum, Atlanta was confirmed to miss the playoffs for the first time in eight years and finish with a losing record.

Team Pitching Performance Change (2024 → 2025) Pitching WAR: 23.6 → 11.4 (MLB 1st → 23rd) Starter ERA: 3.58 → 4.48 (3rd → 22nd) Starter WAR: 17.4 → 10.1 (1st → 18th) Bullpen ERA: 3.32 → 4.19 (3rd → 19th) Bullpen WAR: 6.2 → 1.3 (3rd → 25th) The numbers are clear. The biggest reason the Braves made the playoffs in 2024, despite offensive inconsistency, was their league-best pitching staff. Both the rotation and the bullpen provided top-tier productivity, propping up the team. However, in 2025, that foundation completely crumbled. This wasn't just an injury issue; it was the combined result of a failure to prepare and catastrophic roster design. This was a 'scheduled collapse' created by a lack of readiness.

Player Ratings (Compared to Salary & Expectation)

< Rating Criteria > S - GOAT A - Excellent Performance B - Good Performance C - Average or Disappointing D - Poor Performance F - Execution.

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Starting Pitchers: D (B before injury) Bryce Elder

28 G 156.1 IP | 5.30 ERA 4.30 FIP 78 ERA+ | Opp OPS .777 HR/9 1.4 BB/9 2.9 K/9 7.5 0.9 fWAR -0.4 bWAR | Grade: B- Elder was an All-Star in the first half of the 2023 season but showed inconsistent pitching afterward. He started the 2025 season with expectations only as an emergency/backup starter. Though he started the year in the minors, he quickly got his chance, chewing up the most starts and innings (156.1 IP) on the team throughout the season (second was Chris Sale at 125.2 IP). He greatly exceeded expectations as an innings eater, logging 7+ innings six times. His stats show a clear divide between the halves. In the first half, his ERA was 5.65, FIP 5.22, and Opp OPS .860, making him a major weak spot. However, in the second half, he showed a noticeable rebound, posting a 4.93 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and .687 Opp OPS. Elder isn't a pitcher who dominates with pure stuff; his primary weapon is inducing weak contact using his sinker and slider. However, in the second half, his average velocity, which was 92 MPH, increased, and he actively used his 95 MPH four-seam fastball in the high zone. As a result, he recorded his first career season where the pitch value of his four-seamer was not negative. Considering his capabilities and expectations, this was clearly a well-done season. If he can maintain the quality of his second-half pitching next year, Elder is more than capable as a regular 5th starter.

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Spencer Strider

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23 G 125.1 IP | 4.45 ERA 4.53 FIP 93 ERA+ | Opp OPS .793 HR/9 1.4 BB/9 3.7 K/9 9.4 0.9 fWAR 1.1 bWAR | Grade: D Spencer Strider returned to the mound after undergoing his second career Tommy John surgery (having had one in college). He was expected to be an elite strikeout artist, utilizing a combination of a 98 MPH average (102 MPH max) four-seam fastball and a 90 MPH slider. However, even accounting for the TJ comeback season, Strider's 2025 performance was undeniably disappointing. Strider's pitches were often easy pickings for opposing hitters all season, resulting in poor metrics like ranking in the bottom 5% for average exit velocity and the bottom 6% for expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon).

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The biggest cause of his struggle was the collapse of his four-seam fastball's effectiveness, which was the foundation of his pitching. In addition to drops in velocity and vertical movement (which determine pitch effectiveness), his arm slot also dropped by 6 degrees, completely destroying the dominance of his high-zone fastball. Seasonal Average Velocity (mph) Vertical Movement (in) Arm Slot (°) 2023 97.2 18.4 48 2024 96.3 17.3 46 2025 95.5 16.4 42 There were positive takeaways from Strider's 2025 season. Despite it being a TJ recovery year, he dispelled some durability concerns by throwing a good number of innings. Furthermore, realizing that he couldn't survive with just two pitches given his current stuff, he focused on integrating a curveball and changeup.

The effectiveness of his secondary pitch, the slider, remained outstanding, maintaining its quality as a primary weapon with a 48.3% whiff rate and a 38.5% strikeout rate. The curveball, developed for left-handed hitters, also showed promise with a 53.7% whiff rate and a .156 batting average against, giving hope for a rebound next season.

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Chris Sale

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21 G 125.2 IP | 2.58 ERA 2.67 FIP 161 ERA+ | Opp OPS .627 HR/9 0.8 BB/9 2.3 K/9 11.8 3.6 fWAR 4.0 bWAR | All-Star | Grade: A- After achieving a complete revival by winning his first career Cy Young award in 2024, Chris Sale maintained ace-level performance in 2025. Although concerns about the aging curve were briefly raised due to some early season volatility, he adjusted his arm slot back to last year's 11 degrees, recovering his fastball velocity. He delivered the best pitching on the team in the first half, earning an All-Star selection and looking like a contender for back-to-back Cy Youngs.

His changeup, thrown against right-handed hitters, decreased in effectiveness compared to the previous year due to poor location and less separation from his fastball. However, his fastball velocity remained strong even in his age-36 season, and his signature slider ranked 1st in pitch value, proving it is still one of the best breaking balls in the league. The quality of his pitching—combining dominant strikeout ability with excellent control—was unquestionable. However, a rib fracture suffered while fielding against the New York Mets led to a long-term absence, preventing him from reaching the required innings threshold and limiting his overall seasonal impact. Compounding this, the Braves' struggling offense and bullpen disaster meant his stellar pitching resulted in a disappointing 7-win season, which is a shame.

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Grant Holmes

22 G 115 IP | 3.99 ERA 4.40 FIP 104 ERA+ | Opp OPS .715 HR/9 1.3 BB/9 4.2 K/9 9.6 0.9 fWAR 1.4 bWAR | Grade: C+ Drafted by the Dodgers in the 1st round in 2014, Holmes finally found a spot with Atlanta after a decade-long minor league career. He was included in the 2025 Opening Day rotation and was scheduled for his first full season as a starter. While other starters were falling off due to injuries, Holmes consistently held his spot in the rotation. Tragically, he too eventually suffered a season-ending injury (Tommy John), which was heartbreaking. Holmes' biggest weapon, after converting to a starter, was his slider, which posted a 42% whiff rate and a .188 BAA. He utilized this putaway pitch to rack up many strikeouts, but the limitations of his approach became clear as he increased the usage of his cutter to mask the weakness of his four-seam fastball. Holmes allowed 10 home runs on his four-seam fastball alone, and the expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) on his four-seamer reached .438. Both his four-seam and cutter recorded an xBA over .300, leaving him with clear challenges to address as a starting pitcher. Holmes opted for non-surgical rehabilitation instead of Tommy John surgery, and he is currently expected to return for 2026 Spring Training.

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Spencer Schwellenbach