[The Athletic] If Pep Guardiola's Farewell to England Becomes Reality, His Legacy Will Be Unrivaled

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The speculation that this season will be Pep Guardiola's last at Manchester City is gaining traction.

Just six months after taking the reins at Manchester City, on January 2, 2017, Pep Guardiola declared, "My farewell process has already begun."

At the time, the club hierarchy reacted similarly. They didn't expect Guardiola to stay for the long haul. Their stance was simply to enjoy his football during the initial three-year contract period. Any time beyond that was considered a bonus.

However, to the surprise of those around him—and even himself—Guardiola stayed for nearly a decade. He led Man City to six Premier League titles, two FA Cups, and four League Cups. Furthermore, in 2023, he ushered in an era of glory by lifting the Champions League, UEFA Super Cup, and Club World Cup trophies.

Nevertheless, according to a report by The Athletic today, sources familiar with the internal workings suggest that this season is overwhelmingly expected to be Guardiola's last in Manchester.

Man City fans recall how rumors of his departure were rampant before his contract renewals in 2020, 2022, and November 2024, and they hope he can be convinced to stay this time too. But the current mood is distinctly different. The final decision will come late in the season, but City is formulating detailed contingency plans just in case.

Whenever the curtain falls, Guardiola’s legacy will be immense. This isn't just because of the trophies he lifted at Man City. It's due to his successful influence in transplanting possession football, which, upon his arrival in 2016, was considered incompatible with the values of English football. Now, his tactics are deeply rooted across modern coaching, from the Premier League and the National League, down to rain-soaked Sunday League pitches.

There is no one superior to Guardiola in modern football. It's true he had massive transfer budgets and players like Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, Sergio Agüero, and currently Rodri, Phil Foden, and Erling Haaland. However, his success is not solely the result of 'checkbook management.' While Chelsea and Manchester United spent similar amounts, achieving little, Guardiola created great teams that were far superior to the sum of their individual players' values.

Winning the Premier League six times in seven seasons, from 2017-18 to 2023-24, is an unprecedented level of dominance in English football history. The number of wins and goals scored in those title-winning seasons are also unrivaled. Just as he did in Spain during his four years at Barcelona, Guardiola has redefined the standard of excellence in the Premier League, both in terms of records and the completeness of performance.

In the last 18 months, Man City's unchallenged dominance has slowed. City finished third last season after suffering a serious slump around this time last year, and this season has not been entirely smooth sailing either. However, after letting go of veterans like Ederson, Kyle Walker, Ilkay Gündoğan, and De Bruyne last summer, Guardiola spearheaded a restructuring around younger players, and he appears to be successfully navigating this generational shift.

So why leave now? The reason is unclear. However, similar to former Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp, it's possible Guardiola regained enough energy to sign a temporary contract extension (the 2.5-year deal signed around this time last year) only to revert to his original instincts later. Both managers likely had loyalty to the club and the willingness to start a rebuild. But staying until that rebuilding cycle is complete is an entirely different matter.

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Guardiola has won every possible trophy at Manchester City.

The fact that Guardiola has stayed in Manchester longer than expected is evident from the roster of individuals previously touted as his successors. Early in his tenure, former manager Patrick Vieira, who was leading NYCFC under the City Football Group (CFG), was internally seen as a strong candidate. Mikel Arteta, who was Man City's assistant coach until he took the Arsenal job in December 2019, was another. Vincent Kompany, a former Man City captain who showed impressive leadership by promoting Burnley to the Premier League in 2023 (now Bayern Munich manager), also quickly emerged as a potential successor.

Currently, strong indications suggest that if Guardiola steps down, the Man City hierarchy will place Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca at the top of their candidate list. This is a rather interesting scenario, as Maresca has been struggling to prove to the outside world that he deserves the club's trust during his 18 months at Chelsea.

There is no doubt that Maresca is a talented and intellectual coach. However, the potential shown by the relatively inexperienced manager and squad at Chelsea has been mixed with periods of crisis, or at least self-doubt. Boosted by Conference League and Club World Cup victories, he appears more authoritative in his second season at Stamford Bridge than in his first. Yet, questions still linger regarding his team building methods, his ability to achieve the organizational development Chelsea needs, and whether he possesses the calmness required to alleviate rather than heighten tensions surrounding the team—a concern heightened by controversial public remarks last week.

Maresca immediately reveals himself as a follower of the Guardiola doctrine (though Guardiola himself prefers to credit Marcelo Bielsa, currently coaching the Uruguay national team, as his inspiration). Maresca, who served as the manager of the Man City U-21 team and later as Guardiola's first-team assistant, has often described Guardiola as a 'genius.' Guardiola recently returned the compliment in a press conference, calling Maresca 'one of the best managers in the world.'

Countless managers leading today’s football have been influenced by Guardiola, often directly. Chelsea’s Maresca and Arsenal’s Arteta worked alongside him at City, while PSG’s Luis Enrique was with him at Barcelona. Bayern Munich’s Kompany and Real Madrid’s Xabi Alonso learned under his tutelage at Man City and Bayern Munich, respectively. Cesc Fàbregas, who is building his coaching reputation at Italian club Como, also played under Guardiola at Barcelona. The same goes for Barcelona coach Thiago Alcântara. Liverpool's Arne Slot is another disciple, having said in a 2023 interview with Dutch magazine 'Voetbal International' that 'Guardiola's approach gives me the ultimate joy in football.'

This level of influence at the top level is uncommon. Successful managers like Carlo Ancelotti and José Mourinho command great respect and admiration from peers, as did Sir Alex Ferguson in the past. But Guardiola's direct and indirect impact on modern football is unparalleled.

The positive side for Man City is that finding a manager who adheres to a similar football philosophy is easier than in the past. The downside is that any coach who models themselves after Guardiola risks being perceived as 'Guardiola Lite.'

Perhaps the most underrated aspect of Guardiola’s management is the insatiable competitive spirit he instills in the team. Just as Sir Alex Ferguson was often underrated as a tactician, Guardiola's man-management skills are often overlooked too easily. However, the intensity of the work he demands daily, weekly, and seasonally is evident, as are the standards he requires from his players to ensure the team never drops off. Six league titles in seven seasons while competing against teams like Klopp’s Liverpool and, more recently, Arteta’s Arsenal, prove this point.

Of course, there is an elephant in the room: the glorious era of Man City has unfolded against the backdrop of serious allegations concerning the club's financial regulation breaches. With predictions that the Premier League investigation results into these alleged breaches are imminent (though the same has been said for a year), some speculate that Guardiola's decision might be linked to this outcome. However, The Athletic found no indication that this is the case.

Nevertheless, it is astonishing that we are still awaiting the findings of the independent Premier League commission regarding the allegations that first surfaced in late 2018 following the initial report by German magazine Der Spiegel. Man City denies any wrongdoing, but depending on the outcome, the club's remarkable achievements over the last 15 seasons could be reassessed through a very different lens.

But these questions have always been directed at City's owners and management, not Guardiola or the numerous players who joined the club over the past decade. It is true that the massive commercial growth achieved by Man City during the investigation period formed the foundation for acquiring Guardiola and top-tier players. However, judging by his track record at Barcelona, Munich, and Manchester, one cannot shake the impression that Guardiola would have achieved comparable success elsewhere, even if he hadn't joined Man City.

It is evident that Guardiola's departure will leave a huge void at Man City. It is equally clear that his exit will be an opportunity for rival clubs. Man City has claimed six of the last eight Premier League titles and, despite an unstable start to the season, is currently trailing leaders Arsenal by only two points. In recent seasons, Arteta (and Klopp before him) must have counted down the days until Guardiola's contract ended, only to feel deflated when he signed an extension.

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Manchester City fans holding up a banner asking Guardiola to stay in 2024.

However, the two-year contract extension Guardiola signed late last year seemed less like a declaration of long-term intent and more of a gesture to steady the ship. At the time, the team was going through a difficult period on and off the pitch, marked by poor results and a transition from Txiki Begiristain to Hugo Viana as Sporting Director. Even then, speculation arose that this season might be his last.

Around this time last year, Guardiola looked noticeably exhausted and worn out by the pressure during what was arguably his toughest season in Manchester. He appears much more relaxed this season, which perhaps echoes Jürgen Klopp's situation two years ago. For a manager, finding the light at the end of the dark, lonely tunnel of management can sometimes be liberating.

Man City fans will hope he is persuaded to stay for one more year. They will dust off their Catalan banner reading 'volem que et quedis' (We want you to stay). And if the second half of the season turns into a farewell tour, they will watch to see if he can sweep all the remaining silverware: the Carabao Cup final at Wembley in March, the FA Cup final on May 16, the Champions League final in Budapest on May 30, and the league title decided at the Etihad against Aston Villa (like in 2022).

But after nine and a half years, Guardiola’s farewell process seems to have begun, making the task of finding a successor more urgent. Whoever is chosen, whoever accepts the challenge, succeeding Guardiola will be the ultimate difficulty.