'Best Expectations, Worst Results' - Atlanta Braves 2025 Season Review (Hitters Edition)

This post looks back on a season that massively failed expectations, so there are a lot of negative expressions overall. If you're sensitive, please hit the back button. 2025 Mid-Season Review: https://www.fmkorea.com/8662479083

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Atlanta Braves 2025 Season Review – Hitters Edition. Going into the 2025 season, with the return of ace pitcher Spencer Strider and superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., the Atlanta Braves were consistently rated as World Series contenders throughout the offseason. However, the season ended up being the complete opposite of what was expected. 76 Wins, 86 Losses (.469) 4th Place, NL East Failed to reach the Postseason The seven-year streak of postseason appearances was snapped, and the Braves finished the 2025 season bearing the stigma of being one of the most disappointing teams in the league.

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Ultimately, manager Brian Snitker, who had led the team since 2016 and established himself as the representative manager of Atlanta—including one World Series title—took responsibility and announced his retirement, even though he was in a position to remain manager for the 2026 season. Bench coach Walt Weiss was subsequently promoted internally to serve as the new skipper. Changing the Hitting Coach and Direction

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Atlanta’s lineup consistently ranked at the top of the league in both team home runs and quality of contact metrics from 2020 to 2024. However, the hitting department was blamed for the failure of the 2024 season, leading the club to fire long-time hitting coach Kevin Seitzer and hire Tim Hyers before the 2025 season. Tim Hyers was a renowned hitting coach, having won two World Series (2018 Boston / 2023 Texas), so a change in the Braves’ offense was naturally anticipated, and the lineup definitely looked different. Team Hitting Metrics Change (2024 → 2025) BB%: 8.0 → 9.3% (3rd in League) K%: 24.0 → 22.2 (14th) Slugging: .416 → .399 (14th) Home Runs: 213 → 190 (14th) Walks increased, and strikeouts decreased. But the cost was steep: the team home runs, which had been among the league's best since 2020, dropped below 200, and the slugging percentage also plummeted to the middle of the pack. As a result, the Braves lineup turned into one where opposing pitchers were 'less punished' for giving up hits.

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Team Quality of Contact Metrics Change (2024 → 2025) xSLG: .428 → .410 Barrel%: 10.1 → 9.1 HardHit%: 42.6 → 41.7 xwOBACON: .391 → .372 The production of hard contact decreased overall, clearly showing a qualitative decline in offensive power even by the metrics. Team Plate Discipline Metrics (2024 → 2025) Zone Swing%: 71.0 → 67.6 Chase%: 29.4 → 27.7 Whiff%: 27.5 → 24.4 First Pitch Swing%: 34.3 → 30.5 Middle-Middle Swing%: 79.7 → 76.6 Due to the change in plate approach advocated by Hyers, Atlanta significantly reduced its first-pitch swing rate in 2025, improving plate discipline and whiff rate. However, the trade-off was the loss of aggressive hitting and power, resulting in repeated situations where they couldn't punish mistakes thrown right down the middle of the zone as they used to.

Team Lineup Report Card WAR: 19.3 (15th) wRC+: 101 (14th) Runs: 724 (14th) Home Runs: 190 (14th) Consequently, the Braves lineup, once considered one of the strongest in the league, sank to merely average. If they hadn't had a late-season rebound after the losing season was already locked in, their actual metrics might have fallen even further down the ranks. Player Evaluation (relative to Salary & Expectations) < Grading Criteria > S - GOAT A - Excellent Performance B - Good Performance C - Average or Disappointing D - Poor Performance F - Execution. Catcher: B. Drake Baldwin (C/DH)

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124 G, 405 AB, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 8.5 BB%, 15.2 K% | AVG .274 OPS .810 wRC+ 125 3.1 fWAR 3.3 bWAR | NL Rookie of the Year | Grade: S Baldwin unexpectedly joined the Opening Day roster due to starting catcher Sean Murphy's injury but led the team by playing a full season at catcher without a single injury. Based on a low strikeout rate, he hit 19 HR (5th on team) / 80 RBI (3rd on team) in his rookie season, injecting much-needed vitality into the weak team offense. Despite being a rookie, he took a key cleanup spot due to the slump of existing long-term contract hitters and achieved a team-leading wRC+ of 143 in high-leverage situations. His defensive catching, throwing, and pitcher-handling skills are not yet at Sean Murphy's level, but he showed consistent improvement throughout the season. Ending the season by winning the 2025 National League Rookie of the Year Award, it was a meaningful year that also delivered a valuable extra draft pick to a farm system ranked near the bottom.

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Sean Murphy (C/DH) 94 G, 291 AB, 16 HR, 45 RBI, 10.4 BB%, 31.2 K% | AVG .199 OPS .709 wRC+ 97 2.0 fWAR 2.4 bWAR | Grade: C When the Braves acquired Sean Murphy from the Athletics, many baseball fans regarded him as the next best catcher in the league. Indeed, in his first season with Atlanta in 2023, Murphy met expectations, recording an OPS of .844 and 21 HR along with overwhelming defensive metrics. However, he was injured on Opening Day of the 2024 season, limiting him to only 72 games and finishing the season with a disappointing OPS of .636. In the first half of the 2025 season, he showed signs of rebound with an OPS of .824 and 16 HR, but his strikeout rate—which averaged 24.4% for his career—spiked to 31.2%, exposing a lack of patience at the plate. Ultimately, he cut his season short for hip surgery after recording a disastrous second-half performance: AVG .130, OPS .462, wRC+ 42. It is regrettable that the team didn't move Murphy when several teams showed interest around the trade deadline, thanks to his first-half performance. As a result, Atlanta is now committed to paying a defensive backup catcher who cannot play a full season $15 million annually until 2028.

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Infield: (Excluding Olson) D. Matt Olson (1B) 162 G, 624 AB, 29 HR, 95 RBI, 12.6 BB%, 24.3 K% | AVG .272 OPS .850 wRC+ 136 4.7 fWAR 6.0 bWAR | All-Star, MLB 1B Fielding Bible, NL 1B Gold Glove | Grade: A+ In Atlanta, where frequent injuries to core players have become almost a team culture, Olson is a true iron man of the league. Since joining Atlanta, he has maintained a streak of 782 consecutive games played, making him a symbol of consistency. Although he narrowly missed the 30 HR / 100 RBI benchmark this season, he still proved his power production by leading the National League in doubles. Furthermore, he recorded a team-leading wRC+ of 147 in high-leverage situations, completely washing away last season's slump and serving as the team's pillar on both offense and defense. Olson won his third career Gold Glove by leading NL first basemen in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Outs Above Average (OAA) defense, providing some small personal success to offset the disappointment of missing the playoffs.

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Ozzie Albies (2B) 157 G, 603 AB, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 8.2 BB%, 14.1 K% | AVG .240 OPS .671 wRC+ 87 1.3 fWAR 2.1 bWAR | Grade: C Albies is the type of player who needs to prove his value with offense, as he consistently shows bottom-tier second base defense. However, even in his age 28 season, the quality of his contact is noticeably declining every year. Seasonal Barrel% HardHit% xwOBAcon 2023 8.2% 39.0% .375 2024 6.2% 32.0% .323 2025 4.9% 30.7% .308 His barrel rate continuously decreased from 8.2% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2025, and his HardHit rate also dropped from 39% to 30.7%. As a result, the expected value of his contacted balls has fallen from .375 to .308 (a bottom 10% league level), making him less threatening to opposing pitchers. In the first half, with an OPS of .606 / wRC+ 72, he was one of the worst hitters in the league, but he managed to rebound in the second half, recording 9 HR, 45 RBI, an OPS of .769, and wRC+ 111. Thanks to the late-season turnaround, the team executed his cheap $7 million club option for the 2026 season without hesitation.

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Austin Riley (3B) 102 G, 416 AB, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 6.0 BB%, 28.6 K% | AVG .260 OPS .737 wRC+ 103 1.7 fWAR 1.3 bWAR | Grade: D Riley, the core player who secured his spot as the center of the franchise with a massive 10-year, $212 million long-term contract in August 2022, was highly anticipated as the 'Second Chipper Jones' after recording 30+ HR and 6.0+ WAR for three consecutive seasons. However, he suffered injuries again this year, cutting his season short for the second consecutive year. Riley’s pure power metrics in 2025—such as exit velocity, bat speed, and barrel%—remained elite, and his expected slugging percentage also stayed high in the league rankings. However, his rate of pulling and lifting the ball increased to a career-high (26.2%), causing his launch angle distribution to be overly aggressive. His squared-up rate decreased from 24.4 to 19.9, reducing the frequency of solid contact and thus lowering overall hitting efficiency.

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Furthermore, as a result of adjusting his plate approach under the new hitting coach, his first-pitch swing rate dropped to 28.5%, a career low, but this failed to translate into better plate discipline. Instead, it only resulted in more whiffs in unfavorable counts, leading to the worst possible outcome: a career-high strikeout rate / career-low walk rate. (Riley vs Slider) His improved ability to handle sliders also reverted back to being a weakness, tormenting Riley all season long. Moreover, he registered a team-worst wRC+ of 11 across 59 plate appearances in high-leverage situations, consistently failing to meet expectations during crucial moments. Ultimately, this goes down as the worst season of Riley's career, setting career lows in every category since his last full season in 2021: games played, home runs, RBIs, OPS, wRC+, and WAR.

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