Noble analyst predicts "The Witcher 3" expansion will drop in May 2026
I've seen this news floating around Polish gaming media for a few days, but it hasn't popped up elsewhere yet so I'm sharing it here. What's particularly interesting is that this isn't just another Boris or Rockstar podcast leak; it's based on a report from Noble Securities (a Polish brokerage). Of course, at the end of the day, it's a bunch of educated guesses.
According to the Noble Securities analyst, the Witcher 3 expansion is coming in May 2026, and CD PROJEKT stock is a "Buy."
Analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski updated CDPR’s core project schedules and budgets in the latest report. He expects the paid Witcher 3 DLC in May 2026, Witcher 4 in Q4 2027, and projects a massive hike in production and marketing costs for the whole trilogy. After that, we're looking at Cyberpunk "Orion" (including multiplayer), plus schedule tweaks for "Sirius" and "Canis Majoris"—all while competing with GTA VI in the market.
The report dropped on December 16, right after an interview with Strefa Inwestorów was published. In the interview, Chrzanowski hinted that one of CDPR's unannounced projects might be DLC for Witcher 3. He explained it would serve as a bridge between the original trilogy and the new saga, aligning with the start of the Witcher 4 campaign.
Paid Witcher 3 DLC in May 2026, W4 marketing kicks off at the same time.
The analyst expects a heavy focus on the Witcher 4 launch starting mid-next year.
"We expect another paid DLC for Witcher 3 in May 2026. We're projecting 11 million copies sold at $30 each next year, with a production budget around 52 million PLN. This launch will serve as the trigger for the full-scale Witcher 4 marketing campaign," the report stated.
The analyst also assumes there will be smaller unannounced projects next year.
"The budget for other unannounced projects that could launch next year is 28 million PLN, with potential revenue estimated at 61 million PLN," the report added.
Witcher 4 in late 2027, higher cost structure for the trilogy.
Since management stated W4 won't drop before 2027, Noble Securities pushed their estimate out by a year to Q4 2027.
"Due to the current dev spend structure, we've upped the estimated budget to 1.4 billion PLN. Marketing is expected to be the same. However, since future titles will build heavily on W4's tech, the total trilogy budget has increased from 2.1 billion to 3.2 billion PLN. Also, due to the tight release schedule (management wants the new trilogy out in 6 years) and brand recognition synergy, marketing costs might be lower than the Cyberpunk 2077 baseline," the report explained.
Orion (including multiplayer) to launch for CP77’s 10th anniversary.
Regarding the Cyberpunk sequel, Noble sees the team currently at 135 people, set to double in size over the next two years.
"Integrating multiplayer into production has extended the dev period compared to the W4 timeline. As a result, the budget has increased to 1.5 billion PLN, with a Q4 2030 release—marking the 10th anniversary of CP77," they stated.
Sirius, Canis Majoris, Hadar: Shifting schedules and reorganization.
Noble analysts don't see any major breakthroughs in these extra projects yet.
"There's no meaningful progress on other projects yet. Dev counts for Sirius and Hadar grew by 14 and 11 people respectively. Meanwhile, the Fool’s Theory team (Witcher 1 Remake) moved to support W4 to share assets. Thus, Sirius and Canis Majoris (W1 Remake) are pushed to 2028. We've also cut the prices by $10 and reduced the budget by 50 million PLN. Hadar is still in pre-concept, so its debut is pushed to 2032 based on the Orion timeline," the report stated.
"Battle for supremacy against GTA VI."
The analyst evaluates Witcher 4 within the broader market environment.
"The market is currently waiting for the next GTA, slated for Nov 19, 2026. Beyond rumors of price hikes for this industry benchmark, investors see proof that the ceiling for game sales is rising. This is supported by the trend of massive hits on Steam reaching higher peak concurrent player counts. At the 2025 Golden Joystick Awards, Witcher 4 lost 'Most Anticipated' to GTA VI by only 2 percentage points, showing the brand's massive scale and potential," the report concluded.
What this means for investors:
Short-term: The W3 DLC in May 2026 and smaller projects (61M PLN potential revenue) keep interest high until W4 and help hit financial targets.
Mid-term: W4 launch in Q4 2027 with a huge budget (1.4B PLN dev, 1.4B PLN marketing) means a massive expansion in scale and sales expectations.
Long-term: Multiplayer Cyberpunk "Orion" (2030), plus delayed "Sirius," "Canis Majoris" (2028), and "Hadar" (2032). The pipeline is long and spending is high. However, marketing synergy and W4 tech can spread costs for future releases.
Noble Securities paints a "bigger but later" picture for CD Projekt, centered around a 2026 "commercial bridge" with W3 DLC, a massive bet on W4 in 2027, and an ambitious Cyberpunk Orion in 2030. Hitting schedules, budget management, and brand monetization against GTA VI will be the key market factors.
https://www.fmkorea.com/9227179235
I know what he's up to, I just can't prove it yet.
"The community is calling CDPR the 'Post-launch GOAT' for dropping new content on a decade-old game, though modders are already bracing for impact and some fans just want Geralt to enjoy his retirement wine in peace."
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