첫 폴더블 아이폰, 700만→천만대?…애플 물량 전략에 디스플레이 판 '흔들'

Hinge and crease problems solved... Apple's real worry is 'scale.'

According to display industry sources on the 12th, Apple is following the original roadmap for its first foldable iPhone. Supply chain whispers suggest the coordination isn't about technical issues like hinge or panel yield issues (creases), but rather Apple figuring out product positioning and volume strategy. Earlier, the prevailing wisdom was an initial run of 7 to 8 million units. But recently, multiple sources in the display and component supply chains are hearing Apple is thinking about 10 million units or more. One supply chain insider hinted, "The exact number hasn't been disclosed, but yes, a more aggressive volume scenario than initially thought has been put on the table."

What everyone in the industry is focusing on isn't the 'tech issues,' but the 'scale.' The supply chain consensus is that the chronic problems of foldables—hinge reliability, UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass) durability, and panel creases—have been resolved to a certain extent through Apple's years of testing.

The arrival of the foldable iPhone is expected to cause serious ripple effects throughout Korea's display and component supply chain. Until now, Samsung Display has basically monopolized the foldable OLED panel market, with Chinese companies like BOE, CSOT, and Visionox chasing behind.

Domestically, Samsung Display is mentioned as the most likely candidate. SDC is already mass-producing foldable OLEDs for Samsung's Galaxy Z series and is optimizing production efficiency by investing in 8.6th-gen IT OLEDs. LG Display is also being named as a potential Apple partner, focusing on IT OLEDs. LGD is known to supply OLEDs for Apple's iPads and has shown off large/foldable concept panels at major shows like SID and CES. The industry believes LGD is exploring future collaborations with Apple in extended form factors like foldable tablets and laptops, leveraging its mid-to-large OLED tech and low-power features.

Broadening the view across the entire foldable value chain, the interests of domestic component makers are complexly intertwined. This is because many firms that have already proven themselves through the Galaxy Z series are positioned across UTG, cover windows, hinges, ultra-thin polarizers, sealing, and encapsulation materials.

However, whether that '10 million units or more' number will actually materialize remains questionable. Since the Average Selling Price (ASP) of foldables is much higher than standard bar-type smartphones, the critical factor is whether global demand can keep up. While Samsung's Galaxy Z series and Chinese foldables have certainly expanded the market, the segment still remains in the single digits relative to the total smartphone market. One component company insider said, "It looks like Apple is internally preparing multiple volume scenarios, and the final quantity has a high probability of being adjusted based on smartphone demand at launch, exchange rates, and component costs." They added, "If the foldable iPhone actually launched at a 10-million-unit scale, the market pie would instantly grow huge, but since it has to be a 'profitable business' by Apple's standards, they won't place an overly aggressive bet."